Species Population Models

We will use spatially explicit population models to simulate the potential impacts climate change on populations of 12 focal species in the Pacific Northwest. The HexSim (www.hexsim.net) modeling framework allows us to simulate species-specific population dynamics on current and future modeled landscapes. The HexSim model also simulated dispersal events allowing us to explore population-level responses to dynamic changes in habitat suitability reflecting changing bioclimatic conditions or vegetation. We will use the HexSim model to simulate population dynamics from 2001-2100. By modeling both dispersal and climate-driven changes in habitat, our approach is a significant advance over models that do not explicitly model biotic interactions or movement. In addition, modeling dispersal will allow us to identify key points in the landscape where connectivity may be limiting and where restoration efforts or land acquisition may improve the ability of species to respond to climate change. For more information, contact Chad Wilsey.